06 May 2010 by Sophie
James O'Keefe is founder of Tetra
Strategy and has 15 years experience in public affairs
campaigns, strategic communications, and reputation
management, including stints for
the Labour Party and David Blunkett. Catch him
providing more political analysis tomorrow
at 1pm in our post-election webchat.
"GOD intervenes in choice of PM." This is how The Sun headline
could read on Saturday morning. A story is gently bubbling
away under the surface that, if we have an uncertain result
tomorrow, will be unleashed in an almighty ash cloud.
Gus O'Donnell - known simply in Whitehall as GOD, is the Cabinet
Secretary. In the event of a hung parliament, it is the
Cabinet Secretary who has to decide the rules of engagement between
the party leaders. Okay, you might say, this is mildly
interesting, but it's hardly front page news. Well,
true…until you add in one devilish detail…
In the event of a hung parliament, the incumbent PM has the right
of first refusal to attempt to form a government, irrespective of
the relative arithmetic. (There is a sound constitutional basis for
this which ensures that the country always has a government in
place - so a sitting PM cannot resign until a new PM in waiting has
been identified.)
Politically, it's a bad break for David Cameron. And it
seems his advisers have only just noticed. Back in March
while they were busy planning their campaign, O'Donnell presented
his plan to a parliamentary committee. That committee had
Conservative MPs on it of course, but back in March they weren't
expecting a hung parliament. Oops.
Of course this will never make the news at all if there is a clear
or even clearish result tomorrow. But given this campaign, who
would be surprised at another twist.
But there's another convention could give David Cameron the last
laugh. In the event PM Cameron does emerge, it is Gordon
Brown himself as the sitting PM and the monarch's principal adviser
who will communicate this to the Queen. So Brown's last words
as PM could be the name of David Cameron.
Catch James providing more political analysis tomorrow
at 1pm in our post-election webchat.